A Prediction: Obama 353, McCain 185

For the heck of it, a prediction for today…

McCain Likely Wins:

• Alabama [9]
• Alaska [3]
• Arizona [10] (though in a closer race than expected)
• Arkansas [6]
• Georgia [15] (also in a close race, with high African American turnout)
• Idaho [4]
• Kansas [6]
• Kentucky [8] (with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell winning, too, but barely)
• Louisiana [9]
• Mississippi [6] (though African American turnout will be high here, too)
• Montana [3]
• Nebraska [5] (all five votes including the Omaha district; Obama will come close but not win it)
• North Dakota [3]
• Oklahoma [7] (sadly, Jim Inhofe will also win re-election against a good young candidate in Andrew Rice)
• South Carolina [8] (though here, too, African American turnout will make the race closer than expected)
• South Dakota [3]
• Tennessee [11]
• Texas [34]
• Utah [5]
• West Virginia [5]
• Wyoming [3]

Obama Likely Wins:

• California [55]
• Colorado [9] (a pickup for the Democrats this time around)
• Connecticut [7]
• Delaware [3]
• District of Columbia [3]
• Hawaii [4]
• Illinois [21]
• Iowa [7]
• Maine [4]
• Maryland [10]
• Massachusetts [12]
• Michigan [17] (wasn’t the race even here in early October?)
• Minnesota [10] (and here, too?)
• Nevada [5]
• New Hampshire [4]
• New Jersey [15]
• New Mexico [5]
• New York [31]
• Oregon [7]
• Rhode Island [4]
• Vermont [3]
• Washington [11]
• Wisconsin [10] (and also here?)

At this point, Obama has 257 and McCain has 163 electoral votes, not counting (what many perceive to be) the seven probable tossup states (Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia). Here’s how I think these seven will pan out:

1. Florida: The media has been reporting for weeks that Obama’s GOTV operation there is strong (as it is nationwide), and likely stronger than McCain’s. Economic trouble has hit Florida as hard or harder than anywhere else (see, for example: hundreds of thousands of brand new but unoccupied condos spanning the coastline from Tampa to Miami, daily racking up debt). The Latino vote there has begun to move, too. Republicans will likely lose their 2004 hold on the Latino vote nationwide, and people will point to south Florida (particularly Miami) as a case study. Obama wins it, barely, 51-49.
2. Indiana: Having spent a summer a few years back (which, yes, isn’t that much time) traversing Indiana, I’ll venture a guess that it will likely go McCain’s way. The polling puts the race there as a tie, and yes, the economy is bad enough that there have been the awkward but promising signs there–literally, in people’s yards–of “Rednecks [voting] for Obama,” but the demographic layout of the state, I think, hasn’t yet changed in the way other states this cycle have. Indiana remains a heavily rural state, save for Indianapolis. Really, all the college towns like Evansville, Anderson, and West Lafayette don’t even count as truly urban, even though they are where Obama will get his votes outside of Indy. But Obama will make it close by picking off some of those votes in the rural areas, simply because of the mood of the country this time around. McCain wins, 52-48.
3. Missouri: For the first time in a long time, I think Missouri will go with the candidate who will lose the election. Save for St. Louis, Kansas City, and Columbia, Missouri leans Republican. To win as a Democrat, you have to at least be somewhat conservative or be seen as center-right (see: Claire McCaskill circa 2006). I think both McCain and Palin campaigning there multiple times in the final three weeks means they know it is close, that they are in the lead, and that they’ve absolutely got to win it. And I think they do, though it won’t help in the long run. McCain, 51-49.
4. North Carolina: My home state. Hasn’t gone Democratic in a Presidential year since Carter in ‘76. I think this will be the first year it does, though some polls still have Obama behind but within the margin of error. African American turnout has been (for early voting), and will be, high. Obama will win the big urban areas (i.e., the Triangle, the Triad, and Metrolina/Charlotte). The only real question will be, I think, at the east and west extremities of the state. Can Obama win Fayetteville, and make inroads going east toward the coast where it’s fairly rural save for Wilmington and Greenville? And can he make inroads west of the foothills in cities like Boone, Hickory, and Asheville? I think he does, though he may not win those areas outright. And thus in the end, he does just enough to win the state by somewhere around 125,000 votes, 50.5-49.5. In down ballot races: Hagan and Perdue win, though Perdue only narrowly after a late charge these past two weeks from McCrory, by having done enough to cut into McCrory’s advantage around Charlotte while also winning the rural extremities of the state. And Larry Kissell will beat Robin Hayes in District 8 this time around, too. And, though it may be too close to call, one can only hope that coach Roy Carter will pull the upset and send Virginia Fox packing in District 5 up here in the Dash.
5. Ohio: This is the one state, I think, where the Republican GOTV machine has kept pace with that of the Democrats, though Obama’s approach to such an operation this time around (i.e., bringing in principles of community organizing) is revolutionary and has given him a natural advantage over McCain no matter the specific state. Another close race, but I think this time Obama wins it, not in the least because this time thousands of voters (both minority and Democratic) in urban areas like Columbus and Cincinnati–people who were wrongfully disenfranchised by Republican precinct managers four years ago–will get the opportunity to finally cast a ballot, because the Democrats aren’t backing down and have rightfully won a few court cases to make sure all voting rules are adhered to without manipulation. Obama, 52-48.
6. Pennsylvania: I don’t know why McCain kept coming to Pennsylvania these past few weeks. Forget his campaign’s internal polls. Everyone–and I mean everyone–has had, for a few weeks now, Obama up by everything from 3-5 points to 10-15 points. Yes, Pennsylvania is very, very rural outside of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and other (small) cities like Allentown. And McCain, I think, very well may make it close. And Ed Rendell has had panic attacks every few hours that Obama hasn’t been stumping there the last two weeks. But I think the Obama campaign knows what they are doing (particularly organizationally), and if they were that concerned, they would have definitely had Obama spend more physical time there. I think winning the urban and suburban areas will be enough for Obama to offset the losses he will have in the center, rural part of the state. Obama wins, 53-47.
7. Virginia: Not much to say here, except that I think Obama will win enough votes in “real America” (i.e., southwestern Virginia)–though he’ll still lose many of its districts to McCain overall–to net him the state as a whole, particularly with the high numbers Obama will get in northeast and eastern (i.e., urban, suburban, “not real America”) Virginia. Obama wins, 51-49.

So that’s how I see it shaping up. Overall, Obama wins the tossup states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virgina. McCain will hold Indiana and Missouri. Obama wins, then, 353-185.

Now watch me be wrong (but, hopefully, not too wrong). Obama ‘08!

[/political, Chuck Todd-like prognostications]